Preliminary Data Analysis

Investigating Fencer Mobility to Div I from ROC events 2021-2022 season

With the elimination of Div II and Div III NAC events from the USA Fencing schedule, many adults age 20-40 without a current C rating are unsure if they will be able to compete in NAC events in the future.

Members of the leadership at USA Fencing have indicated that the Regional Open Circuit (ROC) events meet the competitive needs of fencers in this category. We are using results data from ROC events over the 2021-2022 season to determine if fencers in this age bracket who are currently ineligible for Division 1 have a path to Division 1 competition through ROC events.

This data is courtesy of Dan Berke at FencingTime. The file in the linked GitHub repository named "ROCResults.csv" from FencingTime, along with publicly available membership data, is used below. We hope that providing the code used to generate the plots below (available on GitHub) allows for transparency in our analysis.

Direct email communications with the USA Fencing Events Committee indicated that their data analysis of ROC tournaments was limited to the total number of C1 or better events, without specific attention to the availability of events on a per weapon/gender basis, or how these events varied by region. We hope that by breaking down the data further, we can demonstrate that there are gaps in the availability of sufficiently rated events for some weapon/gender/region combinations.

First, in plot 1, we will look at how many fencers were mobile to Div I across all ROC events over the 2021-2022 season (this means that they were previously ineligible for Div I, and earned a rating at a ROC that made them eligible). This mobility is especially important for non-Vet (age 20-39) fencers who do not have youth (i.e. Junior and younger) or Veteran (40+) events in which to earn ratings. Thus, any inequities in the ROC circuit greatly impact this age category; we separate these fencers out in plot 2. To briefly show how we pared down the data to reach these plots, we provide views of the event ratings (plot 3) and ratings possible to earn (plot 4) for ROCs in the 2021-2022 seasons.

Div I Fencer mobility from ROC events (all ages)

This is the number of fencers who were previously ineligible for Div I (i.e. rated D, E, or U), and then earned a rating that made them eligible for Div I (i.e. A, B, or C) at an ROC event.

Notable gaps:

One woman fencer (all weapons considered) became eligible for Div I through any type of ROC in region 5.
No women's saber fencers became eligible for Div I through any type of ROC in region 2.
No men's saber fencers became eligibile for Div I through any type of ROC in region 5.

2. Div I Fencer mobility from ROC events (adults age 20-39)

A total of 26 non-Vet adult fencers became eligible for Div I events through any type of ROC event in the 2021-2022 season,

Notable gaps:

Only 7 out of 26 were women.
Every weapon/gender combination had at least 1 region where 0 fencers of that weapon/gender/region combination became eligible.

3. ROC Event classifications by weapon/gender and by region

Key gaps:

There are no regional events higher than an A2 classification for any women's event or for men's saber. Div I NACs are A4 events, but only fencers with a C or better are eligible to attend.
There is only 1 region in which B3 events were held during the 2021-2022 season. Div II NACs previously provided this level of event.

4. Ratings earned by fencers (all age groups) at ROC events

These plots differ from plot 3, as plot 3 shows possible event ratings, whereas these plots show what ratings were actually earned. This distinction is important, because an C1 event could be comprised of 15 C rated fencers, all of whom were already eligible for Division 1 (as opposed to a previously D, E, or U fencer winning the tournament and qualifying for Div 1).